The Natural History of Neighborhood Violence
The authors examined the effect of neighborhood disadvantage on the rates of violence over time, using data from New York City from 1985 to 2000. A pattern of violence emerged, which suggested an epidemic, whereby violence spreads and diminishes like a contagious disease. Neighborhoods differed with regards to specific characteristics of the pattern (e.g. onset, peak, and decline), according to neighborhood structure. Patterns of spread and change for gun violence were different from those for other forms of violence.
Fagan, J., & Davies, G. (2004). The Natural History of Neighborhood Violence. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 20(2), 127-147.
Fagan, Jeffrey, and Garth Davies. "The Natural History of Neighborhood Violence." Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 20.2 (2004): 127-47.