Deadly demographics: Population characteristics and forecasting homicide trends

Author: Fox, J. A. / Piquero, A. R.
Publication: Crime & Delinquency
Topics: Age Group Crime Criminology Homicide U.S./National
Keywords: Supplementary Homicide Reports demographics homicide rate
Bibliographic information +

The authors examined the effect of demographic change on the changes in homicide rates that occurred during the 1990s using data from FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) for the period 1976-1999 and attempted to create a demographically-based forecast of future homicide trends. They found that although several factors, such as new policing tactics and employment gains, may be credited with reducing crime in the 1990s, about 10% of the 1990s decline in crime was due to demographics. Moreover, the age-specific downturns have leveled off, indicating that the crime drop may be over. Finally, although the homicide rate may continue to decline, there is a youth crime issue that is hidden in the overall aggregate trend, namely the homicide rate for specific groups may exhibit an upswing, especially among those ages 14 to 24.